Obesity drug catalyst calendar

Forward catalysts for the obesity drug race - earnings, trial readouts, and regulatory decisions - ordered by date and tiered by how much they move the stocks.

As of 2026-07-03. Updated as catalysts move.

Forward calendar #

Catalysts ordered by date. Tier 1 events typically move the stock; Tier 2 are high-signal scientific or earnings reads; Tier 3 are mostly priced in.

Date Sponsor Event Tier Category Note
2026 (ongoing) Novo Nordisk CagriSema HD Phase 3 initiated 2 trial start Higher-dose CagriSema Ph3 program started Q2 2026 to test doses above 2.4/2.4 mg in obesity +/- T2D.
Jul 1, 2026 Both Medicare $50/mo cap takes effect 1 access Trump administration deal: capped out-of-pocket cost of GLP-1s at $50/mo for eligible Medicare/Medicaid patients from Jul 1, 2026. Access tailwind - read post-July US volume against this, not as pure underlying demand. Applies to both Wegovy and Zepbound.
H2 2026 Eli Lilly Eloralintide + tirzepatide Phase 2 combo data 2 readout Validates the amylin + incretin combo concept. Relevant to Zealand/Roche petrelintide + enicepatide combo and Novo zenagamtide unimolecular.
H2 2026 (est.) Eli Lilly Naperiglipron Phase 2 obesity readout (NCT06683508) 2 readout First efficacy data on Lilly's second oral small-molecule GLP-1 (LY3549492). 36-wk weight endpoint, 5 doses + placebo, n=288. Trial COMPLETED per registry (primary completion Jan 2026); no disclosure date guided - timing estimated. Profile sets up the next-gen oral franchise behind Foundayo.
H2 2026 Zealand Pharma Petrelintide Phase 3 initiation 1 readout Triggers $700M Roche milestone payment to Zealand. Confirms amylin platform momentum.
~Mid-2026 Roche Enicepatide + petrelintide Phase 2 combo start 2 trial start Roche to start the fixed-dose enicepatide (CT-388, GLP-1/GIP) + petrelintide (amylin) Phase 2 combination trial ~mid-2026. The combo is the differentiated bid for the high-weight-loss segment and the main reason petrelintides modest ~10.7% monotherapy is tolerated by the Street. 50/50 Roche/Zealand economics - also a key Zealand (.CO) catalyst.
Jul 31, 2026 Both 100% pharma import tariff effective (MFN exemption) 1 access 100% ad valorem tariff on patented pharma imports takes effect Jul 31, 2026 for Annex III firms (Sep 29 for others); waived to 0% for companies signing MFN pricing + US onshoring deals. Novo (Denmark-manufactured GLP-1s) is the most exposed of the two; its Nov-2025 MFN deal secures the exemption, and Lilly is hedged by US onshoring. Watch for pricing/compliance read-through, not a demand signal.
Aug 5, 2026 Novo Nordisk Q2 2026 earnings 1 earnings Same day as Lilly. First side-by-side commercial readout post-Wegovy pill launch.
Aug 5, 2026 Eli Lilly Q2 2026 earnings 1 earnings Same day as Novo. First full quarter of Foundayo launch. Manufacturing CapEx + pricing commentary.
Aug 28 - Sep 1, 2026 ESC European Society of Cardiology Congress (Madrid) 2 conference Possible ziltivekimab (NVO) CV data; cross-sponsor cardiovascular reads.
Sep 14-18, 2026 EASD EASD 2026 (Vienna, expected) 2 conference CagriSema, zenagamtide, possibly eloralintide + tirzepatide combo Ph2 data.
Sep 20-21, 2026 Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 1 investor day Major narrative-setting event under Doustdar. Peak-sales guidance, pipeline timelines.
~Oct 2026 Novo Nordisk CagriSema FDA decision (PDUFA) 1 regulatory NDA filed Dec 18, 2025; standard 10-mo review. First GLP-1+amylin combo approval; validates amylin platform.
Q4 2026 Eli Lilly Retatrutide FDA submission (Obesity + OA + OSA) 1 submission First triple-indication GLP-1 submission. -28% to -30% weight loss. Sets up 2027 launch.
Q4 2026 Eli Lilly Foundayo OSA Phase 3 completion 2 readout First non-T2D / non-obesity label expansion for orforglipron.
Q4 2026 Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 earnings 2 earnings Will include CagriSema PDUFA outcome if decided by then.
Q4 2026 Boehringer Ingelheim Survodutide regulatory submission (obesity) 1 submission Per Steensberg (Zealand): 'later this year.' Positions BI as the third obesity-injectable player after Novo + Lilly. Launch expected 2027.
~Oct 29, 2026 Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings 2 earnings Foundayo full launch quarter; Retatrutide submission update.
Nov 7-10, 2026 AHA AHA Scientific Sessions 2 conference More CV data; possible retatrutide CV biomarkers; ziltivekimab follow-on.
2027 Boehringer Ingelheim Survodutide obesity launch 2 launch Third obesity injectable on the market after Wegovy/Zepbound.
2027 Eli Lilly Retatrutide vs tirzepatide head-to-head trial begins 3 readout First internal Lilly head-to-head between retatrutide and tirzepatide. Readout 2028+.
2027 Novo Nordisk Cagrilintide monotherapy Phase 3 readout 2 readout Cagrilintide as standalone obesity drug (non-incretin amylin analog), separate from CagriSema combo.
Early Jan 2027 JPM J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference 2 conference Annual sell-side presentation; all major obesity players give pipeline guidance.
Q1 2027 Eli Lilly Retatrutide T2D FDA submission 2 submission T2D label expansion for triple agonist after obesity/OA/OSA submission.
H1 2027 Novo Nordisk REDEFINE-11 CagriSema Ph3b readout 2 readout Phase 3b cohort, additional CagriSema data per Novo R&D Day 2026.
H1 2027 Novo Nordisk UBT251 global Ph1b/2a obesity readout 2 readout Global expansion of UBT251 (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist licensed from United Biotech). Ph2 China at 6mg/24wk showed -19.7%.
Early Feb 2027 Novo Nordisk FY 2026 earnings + guidance 2 earnings Annual reset; full-year guidance for 2027 incl. CagriSema launch trajectory if approved.
H2 2027 Novo Nordisk REDEFINE-3 CagriSema CVOT readout 1 cv outcomes Cardiovascular outcomes trial - thesis-defining for CagriSema commercial trajectory; CV-event reduction would unlock label expansion + payer coverage. Per Novo R&D Day 2026.
2028+ Eli Lilly ENLIGHTEN Phase 3 readouts (Eloralintide) 3 readout 5 trials (ENLIGHTEN-1 through -4 and -6). Amylin platform validation.
2028+ Novo Nordisk AMAZE Phase 3 readouts (Zenagamtide) 3 readout 7 trials (AMAZE 1-6 and 12), 84-week duration. Unimolecular GLP-1+amylin validation.