US Federal Debt #

Four charts tracking the fiscal trajectory of the United States

See also: Fed Rates & Money Supply · US Treasury Yield Curve · S&P 500 International Exposure

122.6%
Debt / GDP
3.15%
Net Interest / GDP
18.53%
Net Interest / Revenue
5.8%
Total Deficit / GDP
4.7%
10Y Treasury

Interest Burden #

Net interest payments as % of federal revenue - the credit-analyst view of debt sustainability

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Global Context #

Government debt/GDP vs interest burden - where the US sits among peers. Bubble size = fiscal deficit.

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Deficit Decomposition #

Interest expense vs primary deficit (ex-interest) as % of GDP - separating structural from debt-service costs

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Who Holds the Debt? #

Treasury securities outstanding by holder - quarterly, Fed Z.1 data

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Foreign Holders by Country #

Top 25 foreign holders of US Treasury securities - Treasury TIC data

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How Much of That Is a Nominee? #

The country column records where securities are held, not who owns them

The ranking above is the standard one, and it is routinely read as a list of owners. It is not. Treasury records the country of the custodian: a Gulf fund holding through a London bank counts as Britain, and an American manager's Cayman feeder counts as the Cayman Islands.

That distinction used to be a footnote. It is now $3.55 trillion of $9.27 trillion, or 38%, up from 12.6% in 2000. For more than a third of foreign-held US government debt, the published holder is a nominee.

10%20%30%40%12.6%200038.3%2025share of foreign-held US Treasuries kept in custodial centres

Custodial centres are a named group, because nothing in the data marks one. The alternative is pretending the distinction does not exist. See Where the Leverage Is for the rest of this series.

Sources: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, IMF World Economic Outlook, Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. CBO projections shown as dashed lines. IMF WEO uses general government (includes state/local); all other charts use federal government. Charts updated automatically via weekly cron.