The Obesity Drug Chessboard after ADA2025 with Q2 Earnings in Play ♟️

Quick status check on Novo, Lilly, and rivals after ADA 2025 - just ahead of Q2 earnings.

Introduction

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will release their Q2 results on 6 and 7 August.
ADA 2025, which wrapped at the end of June, delivered a blitz of new obesity data. Below is a look at every major piece now on the board—and the ones most likely to move next in this century-old contest between the two weight-loss giants. (Need a refresher on the previous board set-up? Check the earlier post.)

Candidates and products on the board

After ADA 2025 we got fresh topline data on three fronts:
• Amycretin (Novo Nordisk, phase 1 - weekly shot and daily pill)
• MariTide / Maridebart cafraglutide (Amgen, phase 2 - monthly shot)
• Orforglipron (Eli Lilly, phase 3 - daily pill in T2D patients).

The first table summarises the key pieces now in play. Except for Orforglipron (a small-molecule GLP-1) and Bimagrumab (a muscle-preserving mAb), every candidate is a GLP-1 receptor agonist or combo. Bimagrumab stays on the board because the phase 2 BELIEVE read-out of the bima + sema combo (NCT05616013) was showcased at ADA 2025, and analysts see a > $30 billion market for muscle-preserving obesity drugs by 2035.

The second table drills into weight-loss studies that excluded hyperglycaemic/diabetic patients.

Drug	Company	Mechanism	Type	Administration	Primary Obesity Trial	Products	Other Names	Weight Loss %
Amycretin	Novo Nordisk	Dual GLP1 + amylin	Peptide	Subcutaneous	NCT06064006	N/A	NN9487	24.3%
Retatrutide	Eli Lilly	Triple GLP1 + GIP + GCG	Peptide	Subcutaneous, weekly	NCT04881760	N/A	LY3437943	24.2%
CagriSema	Novo Nordisk	Combo GLP1 + amylin	Peptide	Subcutaneous, weekly	NCT05567796	N/A	NN9838	22.7%
Tirzepatide	Eli Lilly	Dual GLP1 + GIP	Peptide	Subcutaneous, weekly	NCT04184622	Zepbound	LY3298176	22.5%
Semaglutide	Novo Nordisk	GLP1	Peptide	Subcutaneous, weekly	NCT05646706	Wegovy	NN9535	20.7%
Maridebart cafraglutide	Amgen	Dual GLP1 + GIP	Peptide + mAB	Subcutaneous, monthly	NCT05669599	N/A	AMG133	19.9%
Semaglutide	Novo Nordisk	GLP1	Peptide	Oral	NCT05035095	N/A	NN9924	16.6%
Orforglipron	Eli Lilly	GLP1	SMD	Oral	NCT05051579	N/A	LY3502970	14.7%
Amycretin	Novo Nordisk	Dual GLP1 + amylin	Peptide	Oral	NCT06064006	N/A	NN9487	10.4%
Liraglutide	Novo Nordisk	GLP1	Peptide	Subcutaneous, daily	NCT01272219	Saxenda	NN2211	8.0%
Bimagrumab	Eli Lilly	Activin-II	mAB	Intravenous	NCT06643728	N/A	LY3985863	N/A

Sponsor	Compound	Administration	Phase	Dose (mg)	Trial Name	OT WL %	IT WL %	Weeks	Completion	NCT ID	Participants
Novo Nordisk	Amycretin	SubQ, weekly	1	60	- ^🔗📄	24.3	N/A	36	2025-06-20	NCT06064006	125
Eli Lilly	Retatrutide	SubQ, weekly	2	12	TRIUMPH-Obesity ^🔗📄	24.2	20.9	48	2023-06-26	NCT04881760	338
Novo Nordisk	CagriSema	SubQ, weekly	3	2.4, 2.4	REDEFINE-1 ^🔗📄	22.7	20.4	68	2024-12-20	NCT05567796	3417
Eli Lilly	Tirzepatide	SubQ, weekly	3	15	SURMOUNT-1 ^🔗📄	22.5	20.9	72	2022-06-04	NCT04184622	2539
Novo Nordisk	Semaglutide	SubQ, weekly	3	7.2	STEP-UP ^🔗📄	20.7	18.7	72	2025-01-17	NCT05646706	1407
Amgen	Maridebart cafraglutide	SubQ, monthly	2	420	- ^🔗📄	19.9	16.2	52	2025-06-23	NCT05669599	592
Novo Nordisk	Semaglutide	SubQ, weekly	3	2.4	STEP-1 ^🔗📄	16.9	14.9	68	2021-02-21	NCT03548935	1961
Novo Nordisk	Semaglutide	Oral, daily	3	25	OASIS-4 ^🔗	16.6	13.6	64	2024-10-23	NCT05564117	307
Eli Lilly	Orforglipron	Oral, daily	2	45	- ^🔗📄	14.7	N/A	36	2023-06-23	NCT05051579	272
Novo Nordisk	Amycretin	Oral, daily	1	50	- ^🔗📄	10.4	N/A	12	2024-01-09	NCT05369390	144
Novo Nordisk	Liraglutide	SubQ, daily	3	3	SCALE-Obesity ^🔗📄	8.0	8.0	56	2015-07-02	NCT01272219	2432

OT and IT refer to On-Treatment and Intent-to-Treat weight loss, respectively. OT reflects participants who completed treatment, while IT includes all who were randomised.

What to listen for on the Q2 earnings calls

Novo Nordisk — 6 Aug

CEO hand-off - any hint on who follows Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen?
Manufacturing headroom - has Wegovy capacity finally outpaced demand, and will it scale for Amycretin?
Amycretin phase 3 design - trial size, endpoints, and the split between oral and injectable arms.
CagriSema filing - timeline clarity after the REDEFINE data.
Oral sema 25 mg - likely no news; FDA already accepted the OASIS-4 filing, PDUFA sits in Q4.

Eli Lilly — 7 Aug

Orforglipron phase 3 - guidance now or pushed to the promised Q3 update?
Bimagrumab phase 3 - has the trial design been finalised with FDA, or is it still pencilled in for Q4?
Retatrutide phase 3 - first-patient-in date, dosing cadence, any early enrolment colour?

Wild-cards

Amgen - could outline the MariTide phase 3 program (monthly shot).
Boehringer Ingelheim / Zealand - may drop an enrolment update on Survodutide’s SYNCHRONIZE-1 trial in non-T2D patients.

End-game snapshot - who is up on the board?

Current position

Lilly is a pawn ahead in market play: Zepbound still edges Wegovy on kilos lost.
Novo answered with a bold move: the Amycretin shot posted -24.3 % in phase 1 and, after buying Catalent, Novo controls more fill-finish capacity to feed future demand.

Key squares to watch next turn

Safety file - GI events and dropout rates at high doses.
CVOT lane - hard-outcome trials will crown the real king.
Manufacturing lane - Catalent integration must unblock Wegovy and prep Amycretin.

Scorecard

In-market pieces: advantage Lilly.
Late-stage pipeline: even - Retatrutide vs Amycretin.
Oral game: Lilly up a tempo with SMD Orforglipron; Novo’s high-dose oral sema trails, Amycretin pill is the dark horse.

Next move (Q2 calls, 6-7 Aug)
Updates on supply chain, phase 3 starts, CV signals, and CEO succession (Novo) could swing initiative. The first player to pair mega weight loss with clean CV data will own the board.